Kostić, Srdan

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  • Kostić, Srdan (8)
  • Kostić, Srđan (2)
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Author's Bibliography

Nonlinear dynamics behind the seismic cycle: One-dimensional phenomenological modeling

Kostić, Srdan; Vasović, Nebojša; Todorović, Kristina; Franović, Igor

(Pergamon-Elsevier Science Ltd, Oxford, 2018)

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Kostić, Srdan
AU  - Vasović, Nebojša
AU  - Todorović, Kristina
AU  - Franović, Igor
PY  - 2018
UR  - https://farfar.pharmacy.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/3204
AB  - In present paper, authors examine the dynamics of a spring-slider model, considered as a phenomenological setup of a geological fault motion. Research is based on an assumption of delayed interaction between the two blocks, which is an idea that dates back to original Burridge-Knopoff model. In contrast to this first model, group of blocks on each side of transmission zone (with delayed interaction) is replaced by a single block. Results obtained indicate predominant impact of the introduced time delay, whose decrease leads to transition from steady state or aseismic creep to seismic regime, where each part of the seismic cycle (co-seismic, post-seismic and inter-seismic) could be recognized. In particular, for coupling strength of order 10 2 observed system exhibit inverse Andronov-Hopf bifurcation for very small value of time delay, tau approximate to 0.01, when long-period (T = 12) and high-amplitude oscillations occur. Further increase of time delay, of order 10(-1), induces an occurrence of a direct Andronov-Hopf bifurcation, with short-period (T = 0.5) oscillations of approximately ten times smaller amplitude. This reduction in time delay could be the consequence of the increase of temperature due to frictional heating, or due to decrease of pressure which follows the sudden movement along the fault. Analysis is conducted for the parameter values consistent with previous laboratory findings and geological observations relevant from the seismological viewpoint.
PB  - Pergamon-Elsevier Science Ltd, Oxford
T2  - Chaos Solitons & Fractals
T1  - Nonlinear dynamics behind the seismic cycle: One-dimensional phenomenological modeling
VL  - 106
SP  - 310
EP  - 316
DO  - 10.1016/j.chaos.2017.11.037
ER  - 
@article{
author = "Kostić, Srdan and Vasović, Nebojša and Todorović, Kristina and Franović, Igor",
year = "2018",
abstract = "In present paper, authors examine the dynamics of a spring-slider model, considered as a phenomenological setup of a geological fault motion. Research is based on an assumption of delayed interaction between the two blocks, which is an idea that dates back to original Burridge-Knopoff model. In contrast to this first model, group of blocks on each side of transmission zone (with delayed interaction) is replaced by a single block. Results obtained indicate predominant impact of the introduced time delay, whose decrease leads to transition from steady state or aseismic creep to seismic regime, where each part of the seismic cycle (co-seismic, post-seismic and inter-seismic) could be recognized. In particular, for coupling strength of order 10 2 observed system exhibit inverse Andronov-Hopf bifurcation for very small value of time delay, tau approximate to 0.01, when long-period (T = 12) and high-amplitude oscillations occur. Further increase of time delay, of order 10(-1), induces an occurrence of a direct Andronov-Hopf bifurcation, with short-period (T = 0.5) oscillations of approximately ten times smaller amplitude. This reduction in time delay could be the consequence of the increase of temperature due to frictional heating, or due to decrease of pressure which follows the sudden movement along the fault. Analysis is conducted for the parameter values consistent with previous laboratory findings and geological observations relevant from the seismological viewpoint.",
publisher = "Pergamon-Elsevier Science Ltd, Oxford",
journal = "Chaos Solitons & Fractals",
title = "Nonlinear dynamics behind the seismic cycle: One-dimensional phenomenological modeling",
volume = "106",
pages = "310-316",
doi = "10.1016/j.chaos.2017.11.037"
}
Kostić, S., Vasović, N., Todorović, K.,& Franović, I.. (2018). Nonlinear dynamics behind the seismic cycle: One-dimensional phenomenological modeling. in Chaos Solitons & Fractals
Pergamon-Elsevier Science Ltd, Oxford., 106, 310-316.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2017.11.037
Kostić S, Vasović N, Todorović K, Franović I. Nonlinear dynamics behind the seismic cycle: One-dimensional phenomenological modeling. in Chaos Solitons & Fractals. 2018;106:310-316.
doi:10.1016/j.chaos.2017.11.037 .
Kostić, Srdan, Vasović, Nebojša, Todorović, Kristina, Franović, Igor, "Nonlinear dynamics behind the seismic cycle: One-dimensional phenomenological modeling" in Chaos Solitons & Fractals, 106 (2018):310-316,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2017.11.037 . .
3
1

Dynamics of fault motion in a stochastic spring-slider model with varying neighboring interactions and time-delayed coupling

Kostić, Srdan; Vasović, Nebojša; Franović, Igor; Todorović, Kristina; Klinshov, Vladimir; Nekorkin, Vladimir

(Springer, Dordrecht, 2017)

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Kostić, Srdan
AU  - Vasović, Nebojša
AU  - Franović, Igor
AU  - Todorović, Kristina
AU  - Klinshov, Vladimir
AU  - Nekorkin, Vladimir
PY  - 2017
UR  - https://farfar.pharmacy.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/2951
AB  - We examine dynamics of a fault motion by analyzing behavior of a spring-slider model composed of 100 blocks where each block is coupled to a varying number of 2K neighboring units (1 2K N, ). Dynamics of such model is studied under the effect of delayed interaction, variable coupling strength and random seismic noise. The qualitative analysis of stability and bifurcations is carried out by deriving an approximate deterministic mean-field model, which is demonstrated to accurately capture the dynamics of the original stochastic system. The primary effect concerns the direct supercritical Andronov-Hopf bifurcation, which underlies transition from equilibrium state to periodic oscillations under the variation of coupling delay. Nevertheless, the impact of delayed interactions is shown to depend on the coupling strength and the friction force. In particular, for loosely coupled blocks and low values of friction, observed system does not exhibit any bifurcation, regardless of the assumed noise amplitude in the expected range of values. It is also suggested that a group of blocks with the largest displacements, which exhibit nearly regular periodic oscillations analogous to coseismic motion for system parameters just above the bifurcation curve, can be treated as a representative of an earthquake hypocenter. In this case, the distribution of event magnitudes, defined as a natural logarithm of a sum of squared displacements, is found to correspond well to periodic (characteristic) earthquake model.
PB  - Springer, Dordrecht
T2  - Nonlinear Dynamics
T1  - Dynamics of fault motion in a stochastic spring-slider model with varying neighboring interactions and time-delayed coupling
VL  - 87
IS  - 4
SP  - 2563
EP  - 2575
DO  - 10.1007/s11071-016-3211-5
ER  - 
@article{
author = "Kostić, Srdan and Vasović, Nebojša and Franović, Igor and Todorović, Kristina and Klinshov, Vladimir and Nekorkin, Vladimir",
year = "2017",
abstract = "We examine dynamics of a fault motion by analyzing behavior of a spring-slider model composed of 100 blocks where each block is coupled to a varying number of 2K neighboring units (1 2K N, ). Dynamics of such model is studied under the effect of delayed interaction, variable coupling strength and random seismic noise. The qualitative analysis of stability and bifurcations is carried out by deriving an approximate deterministic mean-field model, which is demonstrated to accurately capture the dynamics of the original stochastic system. The primary effect concerns the direct supercritical Andronov-Hopf bifurcation, which underlies transition from equilibrium state to periodic oscillations under the variation of coupling delay. Nevertheless, the impact of delayed interactions is shown to depend on the coupling strength and the friction force. In particular, for loosely coupled blocks and low values of friction, observed system does not exhibit any bifurcation, regardless of the assumed noise amplitude in the expected range of values. It is also suggested that a group of blocks with the largest displacements, which exhibit nearly regular periodic oscillations analogous to coseismic motion for system parameters just above the bifurcation curve, can be treated as a representative of an earthquake hypocenter. In this case, the distribution of event magnitudes, defined as a natural logarithm of a sum of squared displacements, is found to correspond well to periodic (characteristic) earthquake model.",
publisher = "Springer, Dordrecht",
journal = "Nonlinear Dynamics",
title = "Dynamics of fault motion in a stochastic spring-slider model with varying neighboring interactions and time-delayed coupling",
volume = "87",
number = "4",
pages = "2563-2575",
doi = "10.1007/s11071-016-3211-5"
}
Kostić, S., Vasović, N., Franović, I., Todorović, K., Klinshov, V.,& Nekorkin, V.. (2017). Dynamics of fault motion in a stochastic spring-slider model with varying neighboring interactions and time-delayed coupling. in Nonlinear Dynamics
Springer, Dordrecht., 87(4), 2563-2575.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11071-016-3211-5
Kostić S, Vasović N, Franović I, Todorović K, Klinshov V, Nekorkin V. Dynamics of fault motion in a stochastic spring-slider model with varying neighboring interactions and time-delayed coupling. in Nonlinear Dynamics. 2017;87(4):2563-2575.
doi:10.1007/s11071-016-3211-5 .
Kostić, Srdan, Vasović, Nebojša, Franović, Igor, Todorović, Kristina, Klinshov, Vladimir, Nekorkin, Vladimir, "Dynamics of fault motion in a stochastic spring-slider model with varying neighboring interactions and time-delayed coupling" in Nonlinear Dynamics, 87, no. 4 (2017):2563-2575,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11071-016-3211-5 . .
4
2
5

Application of artificial neural networks for slope stability analysis in geotechnical practice

Kostić, Srđan; Vasović, Nebojša; Todorović, Kristina; Samčović, Andreja

(IEEE, New York, 2016)

TY  - CONF
AU  - Kostić, Srđan
AU  - Vasović, Nebojša
AU  - Todorović, Kristina
AU  - Samčović, Andreja
PY  - 2016
UR  - https://farfar.pharmacy.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/2672
AB  - In present paper, authors develop a model for estimation of earth slope stability based on the artificial neural networks. For this purpose, authors engage multi-layer feed-forward network with Levenberg-Marquardt learning algorithm and 14 hidden nodes, using existing experimental data, and the results of traditional limit equilibrium analyzes of 57 different cases according to the predefined experimental plan. The results obtained indicate high level of statistical reliability (R=0.95 and MSE=0.0035 for testing set of scaled values) and similar estimation accuracy as the existing mathematical expression for calculation of slope safety factor.
PB  - IEEE, New York
C3  - 2016 13th Symposium on Neural Networks and Applications, NEUREL 2016
T1  - Application of artificial neural networks for slope stability analysis in geotechnical practice
SP  - 89
EP  - 94
DO  - 10.1109/NEUREL.2016.7800125
ER  - 
@conference{
author = "Kostić, Srđan and Vasović, Nebojša and Todorović, Kristina and Samčović, Andreja",
year = "2016",
abstract = "In present paper, authors develop a model for estimation of earth slope stability based on the artificial neural networks. For this purpose, authors engage multi-layer feed-forward network with Levenberg-Marquardt learning algorithm and 14 hidden nodes, using existing experimental data, and the results of traditional limit equilibrium analyzes of 57 different cases according to the predefined experimental plan. The results obtained indicate high level of statistical reliability (R=0.95 and MSE=0.0035 for testing set of scaled values) and similar estimation accuracy as the existing mathematical expression for calculation of slope safety factor.",
publisher = "IEEE, New York",
journal = "2016 13th Symposium on Neural Networks and Applications, NEUREL 2016",
title = "Application of artificial neural networks for slope stability analysis in geotechnical practice",
pages = "89-94",
doi = "10.1109/NEUREL.2016.7800125"
}
Kostić, S., Vasović, N., Todorović, K.,& Samčović, A.. (2016). Application of artificial neural networks for slope stability analysis in geotechnical practice. in 2016 13th Symposium on Neural Networks and Applications, NEUREL 2016
IEEE, New York., 89-94.
https://doi.org/10.1109/NEUREL.2016.7800125
Kostić S, Vasović N, Todorović K, Samčović A. Application of artificial neural networks for slope stability analysis in geotechnical practice. in 2016 13th Symposium on Neural Networks and Applications, NEUREL 2016. 2016;:89-94.
doi:10.1109/NEUREL.2016.7800125 .
Kostić, Srđan, Vasović, Nebojša, Todorović, Kristina, Samčović, Andreja, "Application of artificial neural networks for slope stability analysis in geotechnical practice" in 2016 13th Symposium on Neural Networks and Applications, NEUREL 2016 (2016):89-94,
https://doi.org/10.1109/NEUREL.2016.7800125 . .
10
2
9

Earthquake nucleation in a stochastic fault model of globally coupled units with interaction delays

Vasović, Nebojša; Kostić, Srdan; Franović, Igor; Todorović, Kristina

(Elsevier Science BV, Amsterdam, 2016)

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Vasović, Nebojša
AU  - Kostić, Srdan
AU  - Franović, Igor
AU  - Todorović, Kristina
PY  - 2016
UR  - https://farfar.pharmacy.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/2598
AB  - In present paper we analyze dynamics of fault motion by considering delayed interaction of 100 all-to-all coupled blocks with rate-dependent friction law in presence of random seismic noise. Such a model sufficiently well describes a real fault motion, whose prevailing stochastic nature is implied by surrogate data analysis of available GPS measurements of active fault movement. Interaction of blocks in an analyzed model is studied as a function of time delay, observed both for dynamics of individual faults and phenomenological models. Analyzed model is examined as a system of all-to-all coupled blocks according to typical assumption of compound faults as complex of globally coupled segments. We apply numerical methods to show that there are local bifurcations from equilibrium state to periodic oscillations, with an occurrence of irregular aperiodic behavior when initial conditions are set away from the equilibrium point. Such a behavior indicates a possible existence of a bi-stable dynamical regime, due to effect of the introduced seismic noise or the existence of global attractor. The latter assumption is additionally confirmed by analyzing the corresponding mean-field approximated model. In this bi-stable regime, distribution of event magnitudes follows Gutenberg-Richter power law with satisfying statistical accuracy, including the b-value within the real observed range.
PB  - Elsevier Science BV, Amsterdam
T2  - Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation
T1  - Earthquake nucleation in a stochastic fault model of globally coupled units with interaction delays
VL  - 38
SP  - 117
EP  - 129
DO  - 10.1016/j.cnsns.2016.02.011
ER  - 
@article{
author = "Vasović, Nebojša and Kostić, Srdan and Franović, Igor and Todorović, Kristina",
year = "2016",
abstract = "In present paper we analyze dynamics of fault motion by considering delayed interaction of 100 all-to-all coupled blocks with rate-dependent friction law in presence of random seismic noise. Such a model sufficiently well describes a real fault motion, whose prevailing stochastic nature is implied by surrogate data analysis of available GPS measurements of active fault movement. Interaction of blocks in an analyzed model is studied as a function of time delay, observed both for dynamics of individual faults and phenomenological models. Analyzed model is examined as a system of all-to-all coupled blocks according to typical assumption of compound faults as complex of globally coupled segments. We apply numerical methods to show that there are local bifurcations from equilibrium state to periodic oscillations, with an occurrence of irregular aperiodic behavior when initial conditions are set away from the equilibrium point. Such a behavior indicates a possible existence of a bi-stable dynamical regime, due to effect of the introduced seismic noise or the existence of global attractor. The latter assumption is additionally confirmed by analyzing the corresponding mean-field approximated model. In this bi-stable regime, distribution of event magnitudes follows Gutenberg-Richter power law with satisfying statistical accuracy, including the b-value within the real observed range.",
publisher = "Elsevier Science BV, Amsterdam",
journal = "Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation",
title = "Earthquake nucleation in a stochastic fault model of globally coupled units with interaction delays",
volume = "38",
pages = "117-129",
doi = "10.1016/j.cnsns.2016.02.011"
}
Vasović, N., Kostić, S., Franović, I.,& Todorović, K.. (2016). Earthquake nucleation in a stochastic fault model of globally coupled units with interaction delays. in Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation
Elsevier Science BV, Amsterdam., 38, 117-129.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cnsns.2016.02.011
Vasović N, Kostić S, Franović I, Todorović K. Earthquake nucleation in a stochastic fault model of globally coupled units with interaction delays. in Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation. 2016;38:117-129.
doi:10.1016/j.cnsns.2016.02.011 .
Vasović, Nebojša, Kostić, Srdan, Franović, Igor, Todorović, Kristina, "Earthquake nucleation in a stochastic fault model of globally coupled units with interaction delays" in Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation, 38 (2016):117-129,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cnsns.2016.02.011 . .
10
6
11

Assessment of Blast Induced Ground Vibrations by Artificial Neural Network

Kostić, Srđan; Vasović, Nebojša; Franović, Igor; Samčović, Andreja; Todorović, Kristina

(Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc., 2015)

TY  - CONF
AU  - Kostić, Srđan
AU  - Vasović, Nebojša
AU  - Franović, Igor
AU  - Samčović, Andreja
AU  - Todorović, Kristina
PY  - 2015
UR  - https://farfar.pharmacy.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/2501
AB  - Blast-induced ground motion is analyzed by means of two prediction methods. First conventional approach assumes several types of nonlinear dependence of peak particle velocity on scaled distance from the explosion charge, while the second technique implements a feed-forward three-layer back-propagation neural network with three nodes in input layer (total charge, maximum charge per delay and distance from explosive charge to monitoring point) and only one node in output layer (peak particle velocity). As a result, traditional predictors give acceptable prediction accuracy (r>0.7) when compared with registered values of peak particle velocity. Regarding the forecasting accuracy estimated by neural network, model with nine hidden nodes gives reasonable predictive precision (r>0.9), with much lower standard error in comparison to conventional predictors.
PB  - Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
C3  - 12th Symposium on Neural Network Applications in Electrical Engineering, NEUREL 2014 - Proceedings
T1  - Assessment of Blast Induced Ground Vibrations by Artificial Neural Network
SP  - 55
EP  - 60
DO  - 10.1109/NEUREL.2014.7011458
ER  - 
@conference{
author = "Kostić, Srđan and Vasović, Nebojša and Franović, Igor and Samčović, Andreja and Todorović, Kristina",
year = "2015",
abstract = "Blast-induced ground motion is analyzed by means of two prediction methods. First conventional approach assumes several types of nonlinear dependence of peak particle velocity on scaled distance from the explosion charge, while the second technique implements a feed-forward three-layer back-propagation neural network with three nodes in input layer (total charge, maximum charge per delay and distance from explosive charge to monitoring point) and only one node in output layer (peak particle velocity). As a result, traditional predictors give acceptable prediction accuracy (r>0.7) when compared with registered values of peak particle velocity. Regarding the forecasting accuracy estimated by neural network, model with nine hidden nodes gives reasonable predictive precision (r>0.9), with much lower standard error in comparison to conventional predictors.",
publisher = "Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.",
journal = "12th Symposium on Neural Network Applications in Electrical Engineering, NEUREL 2014 - Proceedings",
title = "Assessment of Blast Induced Ground Vibrations by Artificial Neural Network",
pages = "55-60",
doi = "10.1109/NEUREL.2014.7011458"
}
Kostić, S., Vasović, N., Franović, I., Samčović, A.,& Todorović, K.. (2015). Assessment of Blast Induced Ground Vibrations by Artificial Neural Network. in 12th Symposium on Neural Network Applications in Electrical Engineering, NEUREL 2014 - Proceedings
Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.., 55-60.
https://doi.org/10.1109/NEUREL.2014.7011458
Kostić S, Vasović N, Franović I, Samčović A, Todorović K. Assessment of Blast Induced Ground Vibrations by Artificial Neural Network. in 12th Symposium on Neural Network Applications in Electrical Engineering, NEUREL 2014 - Proceedings. 2015;:55-60.
doi:10.1109/NEUREL.2014.7011458 .
Kostić, Srđan, Vasović, Nebojša, Franović, Igor, Samčović, Andreja, Todorović, Kristina, "Assessment of Blast Induced Ground Vibrations by Artificial Neural Network" in 12th Symposium on Neural Network Applications in Electrical Engineering, NEUREL 2014 - Proceedings (2015):55-60,
https://doi.org/10.1109/NEUREL.2014.7011458 . .
2
1
3

Complex Dynamics of Landslides with Time Delay Under External Seismic Triggering Effect

Kostić, Srdan; Vasović, Nebojša; Jevremović, Dragutin; Sunarić, Duško; Franović, Igor; Todorović, Kristina

(Springer Int Publishing Ag, Cham, 2015)

TY  - CONF
AU  - Kostić, Srdan
AU  - Vasović, Nebojša
AU  - Jevremović, Dragutin
AU  - Sunarić, Duško
AU  - Franović, Igor
AU  - Todorović, Kristina
PY  - 2015
UR  - https://farfar.pharmacy.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/2449
AB  - In present paper, model of infinite creeping slope with Dieterich-Ruina rate-and state-dependent friction law is analyzed using methods of nonlinear dynamics. The model is examined under the variation of two parameters: time delay t(d) and initial shear stress s(0). Time delay describes the memory effect of the sliding surface and it is generally considered as a function of history of sliding. Initial stress parameter is periodically perturbed, corresponding to long duration shear seismic wave, or it could be generated by non-natural sources such as traffic vibrations. The co-action of the observed parameters is estimated for two different regimes of sliding, namely beta  lt  1 and beta > 1, where beta denotes the ratio of long-term to short-term (immediate) stress change. The results of the analysis indicate that the most complex dynamics occurs for beta  lt  1, when a possible Ruelle-Takens-Newhouse route to chaos is observed, with a transition from equilibrium state, through periodic and quasiperiodic motion to deterministic chaos. For beta > 1, system exhibits chaotic dynamics for t(d) = 0.1 and for delta(s)  lt = 0.18. These results correspond well with the previous experimental observations on clay and siltstone with low clay fraction, indicating that the motion along the sliding surface is velocity-strengthening (beta  lt  1).
PB  - Springer Int Publishing Ag, Cham
C3  - Engineering Geology for Society and Territory, Vol 2: Landslide Processes
T1  - Complex Dynamics of Landslides with Time Delay Under External Seismic Triggering Effect
SP  - 1353
EP  - 1356
DO  - 10.1007/978-3-319-09057-3_238
ER  - 
@conference{
author = "Kostić, Srdan and Vasović, Nebojša and Jevremović, Dragutin and Sunarić, Duško and Franović, Igor and Todorović, Kristina",
year = "2015",
abstract = "In present paper, model of infinite creeping slope with Dieterich-Ruina rate-and state-dependent friction law is analyzed using methods of nonlinear dynamics. The model is examined under the variation of two parameters: time delay t(d) and initial shear stress s(0). Time delay describes the memory effect of the sliding surface and it is generally considered as a function of history of sliding. Initial stress parameter is periodically perturbed, corresponding to long duration shear seismic wave, or it could be generated by non-natural sources such as traffic vibrations. The co-action of the observed parameters is estimated for two different regimes of sliding, namely beta  lt  1 and beta > 1, where beta denotes the ratio of long-term to short-term (immediate) stress change. The results of the analysis indicate that the most complex dynamics occurs for beta  lt  1, when a possible Ruelle-Takens-Newhouse route to chaos is observed, with a transition from equilibrium state, through periodic and quasiperiodic motion to deterministic chaos. For beta > 1, system exhibits chaotic dynamics for t(d) = 0.1 and for delta(s)  lt = 0.18. These results correspond well with the previous experimental observations on clay and siltstone with low clay fraction, indicating that the motion along the sliding surface is velocity-strengthening (beta  lt  1).",
publisher = "Springer Int Publishing Ag, Cham",
journal = "Engineering Geology for Society and Territory, Vol 2: Landslide Processes",
title = "Complex Dynamics of Landslides with Time Delay Under External Seismic Triggering Effect",
pages = "1353-1356",
doi = "10.1007/978-3-319-09057-3_238"
}
Kostić, S., Vasović, N., Jevremović, D., Sunarić, D., Franović, I.,& Todorović, K.. (2015). Complex Dynamics of Landslides with Time Delay Under External Seismic Triggering Effect. in Engineering Geology for Society and Territory, Vol 2: Landslide Processes
Springer Int Publishing Ag, Cham., 1353-1356.
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-09057-3_238
Kostić S, Vasović N, Jevremović D, Sunarić D, Franović I, Todorović K. Complex Dynamics of Landslides with Time Delay Under External Seismic Triggering Effect. in Engineering Geology for Society and Territory, Vol 2: Landslide Processes. 2015;:1353-1356.
doi:10.1007/978-3-319-09057-3_238 .
Kostić, Srdan, Vasović, Nebojša, Jevremović, Dragutin, Sunarić, Duško, Franović, Igor, Todorović, Kristina, "Complex Dynamics of Landslides with Time Delay Under External Seismic Triggering Effect" in Engineering Geology for Society and Territory, Vol 2: Landslide Processes (2015):1353-1356,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-09057-3_238 . .

Triggered dynamics in a model of different fault creep regimes

Kostić, Srdan; Franović, Igor; Perc, Matjaz; Vasović, Nebojša; Todorović, Kristina

(Nature Publishing Group, London, 2014)

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Kostić, Srdan
AU  - Franović, Igor
AU  - Perc, Matjaz
AU  - Vasović, Nebojša
AU  - Todorović, Kristina
PY  - 2014
UR  - https://farfar.pharmacy.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/2206
AB  - The study is focused on the effect of transient external force induced by a passing seismic wave on fault motion in different creep regimes. Displacement along the fault is represented by the movement of a spring-block model, whereby the uniform and oscillatory motion correspond to the fault dynamics in post-seismic and inter-seismic creep regime, respectively. The effect of the external force is introduced as a change of block acceleration in the form of a sine wave scaled by an exponential pulse. Model dynamics is examined for variable parameters of the induced acceleration changes in reference to periodic oscillations of the unperturbed system above the supercritical Hopf bifurcation curve. The analysis indicates the occurrence of weak irregular oscillations if external force acts in the post-seismic creep regime. When fault motion is exposed to external force in the inter-seismic creep regime, one finds the transition to quasiperiodic-or chaos-like motion, which we attribute to the precursory creep regime and seismic motion, respectively. If the triggered acceleration changes are of longer duration, a reverse transition from inter-seismic to post-seismic creep regime is detected on a larger time scale.
PB  - Nature Publishing Group, London
T2  - Scientific World Journal
T1  - Triggered dynamics in a model of different fault creep regimes
VL  - 4
DO  - 10.1038/srep05401
ER  - 
@article{
author = "Kostić, Srdan and Franović, Igor and Perc, Matjaz and Vasović, Nebojša and Todorović, Kristina",
year = "2014",
abstract = "The study is focused on the effect of transient external force induced by a passing seismic wave on fault motion in different creep regimes. Displacement along the fault is represented by the movement of a spring-block model, whereby the uniform and oscillatory motion correspond to the fault dynamics in post-seismic and inter-seismic creep regime, respectively. The effect of the external force is introduced as a change of block acceleration in the form of a sine wave scaled by an exponential pulse. Model dynamics is examined for variable parameters of the induced acceleration changes in reference to periodic oscillations of the unperturbed system above the supercritical Hopf bifurcation curve. The analysis indicates the occurrence of weak irregular oscillations if external force acts in the post-seismic creep regime. When fault motion is exposed to external force in the inter-seismic creep regime, one finds the transition to quasiperiodic-or chaos-like motion, which we attribute to the precursory creep regime and seismic motion, respectively. If the triggered acceleration changes are of longer duration, a reverse transition from inter-seismic to post-seismic creep regime is detected on a larger time scale.",
publisher = "Nature Publishing Group, London",
journal = "Scientific World Journal",
title = "Triggered dynamics in a model of different fault creep regimes",
volume = "4",
doi = "10.1038/srep05401"
}
Kostić, S., Franović, I., Perc, M., Vasović, N.,& Todorović, K.. (2014). Triggered dynamics in a model of different fault creep regimes. in Scientific World Journal
Nature Publishing Group, London., 4.
https://doi.org/10.1038/srep05401
Kostić S, Franović I, Perc M, Vasović N, Todorović K. Triggered dynamics in a model of different fault creep regimes. in Scientific World Journal. 2014;4.
doi:10.1038/srep05401 .
Kostić, Srdan, Franović, Igor, Perc, Matjaz, Vasović, Nebojša, Todorović, Kristina, "Triggered dynamics in a model of different fault creep regimes" in Scientific World Journal, 4 (2014),
https://doi.org/10.1038/srep05401 . .
18
15
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Complex Dynamics of Spring-Block Earthquake Model Under Periodic Parameter Perturbations

Kostić, Srdan; Vasović, Nebojša; Franović, Igor; Todorović, Kristina

(Asme, New York, 2014)

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Kostić, Srdan
AU  - Vasović, Nebojša
AU  - Franović, Igor
AU  - Todorović, Kristina
PY  - 2014
UR  - https://farfar.pharmacy.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/2193
AB  - A simple model of earthquake nucleation that may account for the onset of chaotic dynamics is proposed and analyzed. It represents a generalization of the Burridge-Knopoff single-block model with Dieterich-Ruina's rate-and state-dependent friction law. It is demonstrated that deterministic chaos may emerge when some of the parameters are assumed to undergo small oscillations about their equilibrium values. Implementing the standard numerical methods from the theory of dynamical systems, the analysis is carried out for the cases having one or two periodically variable parameters, such that the appropriate bifurcation diagrams, phase portraits, power spectra, and the Lyapunov exponents are obtained. The results of analysis indicate two different scenarios to chaos. On one side, the Ruelle-Takens-Newhouse route to chaos is observed for the cases of limit amplitude perturbations. On the other side, when the angular frequency is assumed constant for the value near the periodic motion of the block in an unperturbed case, variation of oscillation amplitudes probably gives rise to global bifurcations, with immediate occurrence of chaotic behavior. Further analysis shows that chaotic behavior emerges only for small oscillation frequencies and higher perturbation amplitudes when two perturbed parameters are brought into play. If higher oscillation frequencies are assumed, no bifurcation occurs, and the system under study exhibits only the periodic motion. In contrast to the previous research, the onset of chaos is observed for much smaller values of the stress ratio parameter. In other words, even the relatively small perturbations of the control parameters could lead to deterministic chaos and, thus, to instabilities and earthquakes.
PB  - Asme, New York
T2  - Journal of Computational and Nonlinear Dynamics
T1  - Complex Dynamics of Spring-Block Earthquake Model Under Periodic Parameter Perturbations
VL  - 9
IS  - 3
DO  - 10.1115/1.4026259
ER  - 
@article{
author = "Kostić, Srdan and Vasović, Nebojša and Franović, Igor and Todorović, Kristina",
year = "2014",
abstract = "A simple model of earthquake nucleation that may account for the onset of chaotic dynamics is proposed and analyzed. It represents a generalization of the Burridge-Knopoff single-block model with Dieterich-Ruina's rate-and state-dependent friction law. It is demonstrated that deterministic chaos may emerge when some of the parameters are assumed to undergo small oscillations about their equilibrium values. Implementing the standard numerical methods from the theory of dynamical systems, the analysis is carried out for the cases having one or two periodically variable parameters, such that the appropriate bifurcation diagrams, phase portraits, power spectra, and the Lyapunov exponents are obtained. The results of analysis indicate two different scenarios to chaos. On one side, the Ruelle-Takens-Newhouse route to chaos is observed for the cases of limit amplitude perturbations. On the other side, when the angular frequency is assumed constant for the value near the periodic motion of the block in an unperturbed case, variation of oscillation amplitudes probably gives rise to global bifurcations, with immediate occurrence of chaotic behavior. Further analysis shows that chaotic behavior emerges only for small oscillation frequencies and higher perturbation amplitudes when two perturbed parameters are brought into play. If higher oscillation frequencies are assumed, no bifurcation occurs, and the system under study exhibits only the periodic motion. In contrast to the previous research, the onset of chaos is observed for much smaller values of the stress ratio parameter. In other words, even the relatively small perturbations of the control parameters could lead to deterministic chaos and, thus, to instabilities and earthquakes.",
publisher = "Asme, New York",
journal = "Journal of Computational and Nonlinear Dynamics",
title = "Complex Dynamics of Spring-Block Earthquake Model Under Periodic Parameter Perturbations",
volume = "9",
number = "3",
doi = "10.1115/1.4026259"
}
Kostić, S., Vasović, N., Franović, I.,& Todorović, K.. (2014). Complex Dynamics of Spring-Block Earthquake Model Under Periodic Parameter Perturbations. in Journal of Computational and Nonlinear Dynamics
Asme, New York., 9(3).
https://doi.org/10.1115/1.4026259
Kostić S, Vasović N, Franović I, Todorović K. Complex Dynamics of Spring-Block Earthquake Model Under Periodic Parameter Perturbations. in Journal of Computational and Nonlinear Dynamics. 2014;9(3).
doi:10.1115/1.4026259 .
Kostić, Srdan, Vasović, Nebojša, Franović, Igor, Todorović, Kristina, "Complex Dynamics of Spring-Block Earthquake Model Under Periodic Parameter Perturbations" in Journal of Computational and Nonlinear Dynamics, 9, no. 3 (2014),
https://doi.org/10.1115/1.4026259 . .
5
1
5

Dynamics of landslide model with time delay and periodic parameter perturbations

Kostić, Srdan; Vasović, Nebojša; Franović, Igor; Jevremović, Dragutin; Mitrinović, David; Todorović, Kristina

(Elsevier Science BV, Amsterdam, 2014)

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Kostić, Srdan
AU  - Vasović, Nebojša
AU  - Franović, Igor
AU  - Jevremović, Dragutin
AU  - Mitrinović, David
AU  - Todorović, Kristina
PY  - 2014
UR  - https://farfar.pharmacy.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/2155
AB  - In present paper, we analyze the dynamics of a single-block model on an inclined slope with Dieterich-Ruina friction law under the variation of two new introduced parameters: time delay T-d and initial shear stress mu. It is assumed that this phenomenological model qualitatively simulates the motion along the infinite creeping slope. The introduction of time delay is proposed to mimic the memory effect of the sliding surface and it is generally considered as a function of history of sliding. On the other hand, periodic perturbation of initial shear stress emulates external triggering effect of long-distant earthquakes or some non-natural vibration source. The effects of variation of a single observed parameter, T-d or mu, as well as their co-action, are estimated for three different sliding regimes: beta  lt  1, beta = 1 and beta > 1, where beta stands for the ratio of long-term to short-term stress changes. The results of standard local bifurcation analysis indicate the onset of complex dynamics for very low values of time delay. On the other side, numerical approach confirms an additional complexity that was not observed by local analysis, due to the possible effect of global bifurcations. The most complex dynamics is detected for beta  lt  1, with a complete Ruelle-Takens-Newhouse route to chaos under the variation of T-d, or the co-action of both parameters T-d and mu. These results correspond well with the previous experimental observations on clay and siltstone with low clay fraction. In the same regime, the perturbation of only a single parameter, mu, renders the oscillatory motion of the block. Within the velocity-independent regime, beta = 1, the inclusion and variation of T-d generates a transition to equilibrium state, whereas the small oscillations of mu induce oscillatory motion with decreasing amplitude. The co-action of both parameters, in the same regime, causes the decrease of block's velocity. As for beta > 1, highly-frequent, limit-amplitude oscillations of initial stress give rise to oscillatory motion. Also for beta > 1, in case of perturbing only the initial shear stress, with smaller amplitude, velocity of the block changes exponentially fast. If the time delay is introduced, besides the stress perturbation, within the same regime, the co-action of T-d (T-d  lt  0.1) and small oscillations of mu induce the onset of deterministic chaos.
PB  - Elsevier Science BV, Amsterdam
T2  - Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation
T1  - Dynamics of landslide model with time delay and periodic parameter perturbations
VL  - 19
IS  - 9
SP  - 3346
EP  - 3361
DO  - 10.1016/j.cnsns.2014.02.012
ER  - 
@article{
author = "Kostić, Srdan and Vasović, Nebojša and Franović, Igor and Jevremović, Dragutin and Mitrinović, David and Todorović, Kristina",
year = "2014",
abstract = "In present paper, we analyze the dynamics of a single-block model on an inclined slope with Dieterich-Ruina friction law under the variation of two new introduced parameters: time delay T-d and initial shear stress mu. It is assumed that this phenomenological model qualitatively simulates the motion along the infinite creeping slope. The introduction of time delay is proposed to mimic the memory effect of the sliding surface and it is generally considered as a function of history of sliding. On the other hand, periodic perturbation of initial shear stress emulates external triggering effect of long-distant earthquakes or some non-natural vibration source. The effects of variation of a single observed parameter, T-d or mu, as well as their co-action, are estimated for three different sliding regimes: beta  lt  1, beta = 1 and beta > 1, where beta stands for the ratio of long-term to short-term stress changes. The results of standard local bifurcation analysis indicate the onset of complex dynamics for very low values of time delay. On the other side, numerical approach confirms an additional complexity that was not observed by local analysis, due to the possible effect of global bifurcations. The most complex dynamics is detected for beta  lt  1, with a complete Ruelle-Takens-Newhouse route to chaos under the variation of T-d, or the co-action of both parameters T-d and mu. These results correspond well with the previous experimental observations on clay and siltstone with low clay fraction. In the same regime, the perturbation of only a single parameter, mu, renders the oscillatory motion of the block. Within the velocity-independent regime, beta = 1, the inclusion and variation of T-d generates a transition to equilibrium state, whereas the small oscillations of mu induce oscillatory motion with decreasing amplitude. The co-action of both parameters, in the same regime, causes the decrease of block's velocity. As for beta > 1, highly-frequent, limit-amplitude oscillations of initial stress give rise to oscillatory motion. Also for beta > 1, in case of perturbing only the initial shear stress, with smaller amplitude, velocity of the block changes exponentially fast. If the time delay is introduced, besides the stress perturbation, within the same regime, the co-action of T-d (T-d  lt  0.1) and small oscillations of mu induce the onset of deterministic chaos.",
publisher = "Elsevier Science BV, Amsterdam",
journal = "Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation",
title = "Dynamics of landslide model with time delay and periodic parameter perturbations",
volume = "19",
number = "9",
pages = "3346-3361",
doi = "10.1016/j.cnsns.2014.02.012"
}
Kostić, S., Vasović, N., Franović, I., Jevremović, D., Mitrinović, D.,& Todorović, K.. (2014). Dynamics of landslide model with time delay and periodic parameter perturbations. in Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation
Elsevier Science BV, Amsterdam., 19(9), 3346-3361.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cnsns.2014.02.012
Kostić S, Vasović N, Franović I, Jevremović D, Mitrinović D, Todorović K. Dynamics of landslide model with time delay and periodic parameter perturbations. in Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation. 2014;19(9):3346-3361.
doi:10.1016/j.cnsns.2014.02.012 .
Kostić, Srdan, Vasović, Nebojša, Franović, Igor, Jevremović, Dragutin, Mitrinović, David, Todorović, Kristina, "Dynamics of landslide model with time delay and periodic parameter perturbations" in Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation, 19, no. 9 (2014):3346-3361,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cnsns.2014.02.012 . .
8
4
7

Friction memory effect in complex dynamics of earthquake model

Kostić, Srdan; Franović, Igor; Todorović, Kristina; Vasović, Nebojša

(Springer, Dordrecht, 2013)

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Kostić, Srdan
AU  - Franović, Igor
AU  - Todorović, Kristina
AU  - Vasović, Nebojša
PY  - 2013
UR  - https://farfar.pharmacy.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/1972
AB  - In present paper, an effect of delayed frictional healing on complex dynamics of simple model of earthquake nucleation is analyzed, following the commonly accepted assumption that frictional healing represents the main mechanism for fault restrengthening. The studied model represents a generalization of Burridge-Knopoff single-block model with Dieterich-Ruina's rate and state dependent friction law. The time-dependent character of the frictional healing process is modeled by introducing time delay tau in the friction term. Standard local bifurcation analysis of the obtained delay-differential equations demonstrates that the observed model exhibits Ruelle-Takens-Newhouse route to chaos. Domain in parameters space where the solutions are stable for all values of time delay is determined by applying the Rouch, theorem. The obtained results are corroborated by Fourier power spectra and largest Lyapunov exponents techniques. In contrast to previous research, the performed analysis reveals that even the small perturbations of the control parameters could lead to deterministic chaos, and, thus, to instabilities and earthquakes. The obtained results further imply the necessity of taking into account this delayed character of frictional healing, which renders complex behavior of the model, already captured in the case of more than one block.
PB  - Springer, Dordrecht
T2  - Nonlinear Dynamics
T1  - Friction memory effect in complex dynamics of earthquake model
VL  - 73
IS  - 3
SP  - 1933
EP  - 1943
DO  - 10.1007/s11071-013-0914-8
ER  - 
@article{
author = "Kostić, Srdan and Franović, Igor and Todorović, Kristina and Vasović, Nebojša",
year = "2013",
abstract = "In present paper, an effect of delayed frictional healing on complex dynamics of simple model of earthquake nucleation is analyzed, following the commonly accepted assumption that frictional healing represents the main mechanism for fault restrengthening. The studied model represents a generalization of Burridge-Knopoff single-block model with Dieterich-Ruina's rate and state dependent friction law. The time-dependent character of the frictional healing process is modeled by introducing time delay tau in the friction term. Standard local bifurcation analysis of the obtained delay-differential equations demonstrates that the observed model exhibits Ruelle-Takens-Newhouse route to chaos. Domain in parameters space where the solutions are stable for all values of time delay is determined by applying the Rouch, theorem. The obtained results are corroborated by Fourier power spectra and largest Lyapunov exponents techniques. In contrast to previous research, the performed analysis reveals that even the small perturbations of the control parameters could lead to deterministic chaos, and, thus, to instabilities and earthquakes. The obtained results further imply the necessity of taking into account this delayed character of frictional healing, which renders complex behavior of the model, already captured in the case of more than one block.",
publisher = "Springer, Dordrecht",
journal = "Nonlinear Dynamics",
title = "Friction memory effect in complex dynamics of earthquake model",
volume = "73",
number = "3",
pages = "1933-1943",
doi = "10.1007/s11071-013-0914-8"
}
Kostić, S., Franović, I., Todorović, K.,& Vasović, N.. (2013). Friction memory effect in complex dynamics of earthquake model. in Nonlinear Dynamics
Springer, Dordrecht., 73(3), 1933-1943.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11071-013-0914-8
Kostić S, Franović I, Todorović K, Vasović N. Friction memory effect in complex dynamics of earthquake model. in Nonlinear Dynamics. 2013;73(3):1933-1943.
doi:10.1007/s11071-013-0914-8 .
Kostić, Srdan, Franović, Igor, Todorović, Kristina, Vasović, Nebojša, "Friction memory effect in complex dynamics of earthquake model" in Nonlinear Dynamics, 73, no. 3 (2013):1933-1943,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11071-013-0914-8 . .
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